Summary of Weekly Events
Week of Nov 25th:
Monday
Economic news
No significant economic news for today.
Price action
Price action tested a short timeframe (15 min) liquidity gap from Thursday, Nov 21st and retraced downward around 100 pips. This would have been a great entry for a short position. It meets one of our trading strategies - short from a liquidity gap zone.
Tuesday
Economic news
The S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index that measures the change in selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas measured at 4.6% - compared to 5.2% from last month. It seems to be in a downward trend from its high in April, 24’.
Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity, which is a leading indicator for predicting consumer spending. November’s readings came in at 111.7 - compared to 108.7 from October’s reading. This is the 3rd month in a row with increasing values and can be directly correlated to the S&P 500’s price action within the same time frame (up around 10% in the last 3 months).
The New Home Sales measures the change in percentage of the new home sales across the country. October’s readings came at a shocking -17%, compared to a positive 4.1% from September. I would’ve been more skeptical of this reading if it wasn’t just as low for May’s reading (-11.3).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting. It offers detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy. This report is very valuable for currency traders as it allows us to predict the outcome of future interest rate decisions. The latest release was today.
Price action
The exchange rate climbed upward to break its former high from yesterday and to test Thursday’s, Nov 21st, high before retreating downward. There seems to be a pattern here. Price retreated around 88 pips to an insignificant area - it is likely that bullish pressure simply died around this level. Not necessarily one of our ideal trading setups, but important to examine for future price action / trends.
Wednesday
Economic news
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices release measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The latest release indicated a 2.10% change in price - compared to 2.20% from the month prior. These measurements are a reflection of Q3 24’ and they are currently on a downtrend from its peak in Q2 24’ prices.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. The latest reading came in at an unchanged 2.8% - the same from last month.
The GDP Price Index is the annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in the GDP. It is the broadest inflationary indicator. This reading came in at 1.9% - compared to 1.8% from the previous month.
Price action
E/U continued its climb and this time towards a 4h imbalance zone. This is an ideal short opportunity. Price action targets the Optimal Point of Entry (OPE) - which is the middle of the zone - before retraces down 52 pips. This was a perfect set up for our short position. If placed, the trade would have entered at around 1300 EST and cleared around 0100 EST on Thursday, Nov 28th. This is a 3:1 trade entry where the profit is 3%.
Thursday
Thanksgiving, no news or significant price action.
Friday
Economic news
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. Eurostat released the latest measurement of 2.3% for the month of November in the Euro region. This is slightly higher than October’s reading of 2.0%.
Price action
Price attacked a 4h Order Block (OB) from Nov 19th, before retreating downward for around 56 pips. This is an ideal short position.
